We are currently living difficult times. Many people around the world are struggling to get basic things; food, for example. During these days, uncertainty is what reigns in the minds of everyone. The world is currently functioning in a way which can be described as chaotic, but people, somehow, manage to survive.
Although most of the time predictions just stay the way they are, prediction, there are certain ways which we can expect the economy to reorganize once the lockdown is over. However, some time will pass until things go back to normal.
Until then, we can expect the lockdown to be finished slowly. Many countries, including the USA, have made announcements where they say in the following months, phases will start to be established all around the country.
When it comes to the economy, it is difficult to foresee how everything will be going on after quarantine is over, since everything seems to be going downhill in most places. However, there are certain scenarios which we can consider. Like we said before, these are just predictions and are not intended to tell you what will happen in the future, but to give you an idea of what’s the most possible outcome.
First Scenario: A new COVID-19 outbreak
With the current measurements which have been taken, it is very possible for a new outbreak to happen. In the USA, quarantine has been more flexible these past days, but thanks to it, the numbers have been increased like crazy.
However, we can expect the lockdown to be at more ease during June and July, thanks to the recent announcements. As we approach winter, it is possible for a new breakdown to happen, which will force the economy to work just like it is working right now, perhaps, slower.
A new outbreak is possible if people don’t follow the guidelines given by the authorities. We have already seen what has happened to Italy, and most countries are now trying to avoid being put in the same position.
Second Scenario: Expecting the best
If we assume the virus doesn’t attack again as winter approaches, then we can expect the best. According to the latest news, China has been doing great after months of lockdown, even with it being the epicentre of the outbreak. If this happens, we can expect the economy to take its normal course in some months.
However, things won’t go back to the way they were. We can expect the economy to start growing during the last months of 2020, and if everything goes well, in 2021 things will be potentially better, which means things will be closer to the way they were before the virus started to be around.
Third Scenario: Expecting the worst
If things don’t go smoothly as they can go in the previous scenario, the lockdown can be extended until the end of the year, which will result extremely prejudicial to all economies around the world. Things will be like they are right now but may get worse over time. However, after time passes, it is possible for new measurements to be taken, which means economical recovery can be faster during next year’s second trimester. Keep in mind we’ll be facing ourselves against conditions of extreme instability, either socially, economically or politically.
To contribute the world to be as it was before the lockdown started, you can follow the norms and stay at home. This is all we can do for now, and if we do things properly, we can be sure in some months everything will go back to normal.